Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
(eBook)
Author
Published
Princeton University Press, 2017.
ISBN
9781400888818
Status
Available Online
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eBook
Language
English
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APA Citation, 7th Edition (style guide)
Philip E. Tetlock., & Philip E. Tetlock|AUTHOR. (2017). Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? . Princeton University Press.
Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)Philip E. Tetlock and Philip E. Tetlock|AUTHOR. 2017. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton University Press.
Chicago / Turabian - Humanities (Notes and Bibliography) Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)Philip E. Tetlock and Philip E. Tetlock|AUTHOR. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press, 2017.
MLA Citation, 9th Edition (style guide)Philip E. Tetlock, and Philip E. Tetlock|AUTHOR. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press, 2017.
Note! Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy. Citation formats are based on standards as of August 2021.
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Grouped Work ID | 4fabed44-68a8-25a0-2cd1-e355f30f4262-eng |
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Full title | expert political judgment how good is it how can we know |
Author | tetlock philip e |
Grouping Category | book |
Last Update | 2024-03-20 23:01:07PM |
Last Indexed | 2024-04-21 01:45:09AM |
Book Cover Information
Image Source | syndetics |
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First Loaded | Jun 19, 2022 |
Last Used | Apr 16, 2024 |
Hoopla Extract Information
stdClass Object ( [year] => 2017 [artist] => Philip E. Tetlock [fiction] => [coverImageUrl] => https://cover.hoopladigital.com/pup_9781400888818_270.jpeg [titleId] => 13283961 [isbn] => 9781400888818 [abridged] => [language] => ENGLISH [profanity] => [title] => Expert Political Judgment [demo] => [segments] => Array ( ) [pages] => 368 [children] => [artists] => Array ( [0] => stdClass Object ( [name] => Philip E. Tetlock [artistFormal] => Tetlock, Philip E. [relationship] => AUTHOR ) ) [genres] => Array ( [0] => Political Science [1] => Psychology [2] => Social Psychology ) [price] => 1.49 [id] => 13283961 [edited] => [kind] => EBOOK [active] => 1 [upc] => [synopsis] => Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton). Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. "It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as "analysts" and "experts". . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself."---Louis Menand, The New Yorker "The definitive work on this question. . . . Tetlock systematically collected a vast number of individual forecasts about political and economic events, made by recognised experts over a period of more than 20 years. He showed that these forecasts were not very much better than making predictions by chance, and also that experts performed only slightly better than the average person who was casually informed about the subject in hand."---Gavyn Davies, Financial Times "Before anyone turns an ear to the panels of pundits, they might do well to obtain a copy of Phillip Tetlock's new book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The Berkeley psychiatrist has apparently made a 20-year study of predictions by the sorts who appear as experts on TV and get quoted in newspapers and found that they are no better than the rest of us at prognostication."---Jim Coyle, Toronto Star "Tetlock uses science and policy to brilliantly explore what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and to examine why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "[This] book . . . Marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case. Expert Political Judgment . . . Summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project. . . . The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that "experts" exist at all."---Geoff [url] => https://www.hoopladigital.com/title/13283961 [pa] => [subtitle] => How Good Is It? How Can We Know? [publisher] => Princeton University Press [purchaseModel] => INSTANT )